Jobless total will top 3m in two years, says Treasury

Unemployment will rise to more than three million over the next two years, according to Treasury forecasts disclosed yesterday. 

The figures show ministers are prepared for the amount spent on joblessness benefit almost to double by the spring of 2011. 

Last week a Bank of England official said it was possible that that unemployment could rise to four million, a figure that would surpass the record 3.3million on the dole during the deep recession of the early 1980s. 

The Treasury calculations suggest the Government expects to spend just over £2billion on Jobseeker's Allowance, the main benefit for the unemployed looking for work, in the financial year that ends today. 

However the amount needed to pay the benefit is expected to rise to £3.25billion over the next 12 months, and to £3.8billion in 2010-11. 

Revealed to MPs in answer to a parliamentary question from former Labour minister Frank Field, this rise is predicted to increase costs to taxpayers by 84 per cent. 

It is thought 2.5million will be unemployed by the spring of 2011. 

Last month the claimant count rose by 138,400, the largest monthly increase since modern counting methods began in 1971  continues here

'Change has come' - Barack Obama wins US presidential election

Barack Obama this morning declared "change has come to America" as he emerged triumphant from one of the most extraordinary elections in history to become his country's first black president.

There were tumultuous scenes at a victory party with 70,000 people at Grant Park in Chicago - and hundreds of thousands more outside - when TV networks simultaneously declared him the winner at exactly 11pm Eastern Time, bringing an emphatic end to the Bush years.

Projected wins in the traditional battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida - as well as Pennsylvania, on which John McCain's pencil-thin path to the White House had depended - were easily enough to give Mr Obama the Electoral College votes he needs.

A clutch of other once-Republican states, including Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia, also fell to the Democrat. North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana and even Montana are still deemed too close to call.

Mr McCain - after an often tempestuous campaign - delivered a gracious concession speech in his home state of Arizona.

But at midnight in Chicago, Mr Obama arrived to rapturous, pulsating ovation from supporters in Chicago to promise the world that a "new dawn of American leadership is at hand".

"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy - tonight is your answer," he said.

In a speech punctuated by frequent chants of "yes, we can", the Democrat said the long lines of voters standing in line for hours had done so because they believed "this time must be different, that their voice could be that difference".

He added: "It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled – Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America."

The immense turnout in yesterday's election was testament not only to the energy, excitement and expectations of a rejuvenated American democracy, but also the fears of a nation standing at a crossroads of history. The new president faces economic and social convulsions at home, conflict abroad.

Exit polls showed Mr Obama performing strongly among voters who regarded the economy as the most important issue, cutting a swath through the east, making deep inroads into once-solid Republican territory in the Mountain West and recapturing parts of the south for the first time in a generation

He hopes his victory, 40 years after the assassination of Martin Luther King and the start of cultural wars that have scarred American politics ever since, holds out the promise of healing his country.

Mr McCain acknowledged as much, saying: "This is a special election. I recognise the great significance it must have for African Americans and the special pride they must be feeling tonight."

In his concession speech he paid tribute to Mr Obama for inspiring millions and declared the country had "come a long way from the cruel bigotry" of the past.

"There is no greater evidence of this than the election of an African American to the presidency of the United States," he said. "Let there be no reason now for any American not to cherish their citizenship of this, the greatest nation on earth."

Several times he quietened boos from the crowd in Phoenix, saying the nation needed to "come together". Mr McCain promised to help Mr Obama in any way he can "lead us through the challenges we face" and told supporters that though his campaign had fallen short: "The failure is mine, not yours".

Robert Gibbs, Mr Obama's spokesman, later disclosed that the president-elect was eager to sit down with his former rival and discuss how they can work can together. He is said to have told Mr McCain: "I need your help, you're a leader on so many important issues."

In his speech last night, Mr Obama declared: "Let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look not only at ourselves, but each other."

He also paid generous tribute to his campaign team, his wife and children - to whom he has promised a new puppy - and his grandmother, who died on Sunday before seeing him win the presidency.

In the fight for Congress, Republicans suffered huge losses, but were clinging to hopes that they might just stop Democrats from reaching a filibuster-proof 60-seat "super majority" in the US Senate.

Democrats, needing nine seats to reach the 60-seat threshold, were on target to gain at least seven, but narrowly failed to pick off Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the upper chamber.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats were on course to gain at least another 25 seats, giving them their biggest majority in the lower chamber for a generation.

Hillary Clinton, who saw her own bid to become America's first woman president narrowly fail in an historically-charged Democratic primary, released a statement saying: "This was a long and hard-fought campaign but the result was well worth the wait.

"Together, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and a Democratic Congress, we will chart a better course to build a new economy and rebuild our leadership in the world."

Gordon Brown issued a statement shortly after 6am in Britain offering "sincere congratulations" to Mr Obama.

"The relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is vital to our prosperity and security," he said. "Barack Obama ran an inspirational campaign, energising politics with his progressive values and his vision for the future. continues here

Britain will be hardest hit by economic slump, warns European Commission

Britain will be hit harder by recession than any other major EU economy, the European Commission has warned. 

It predicts the UK economy will shrink by 1 per cent next year and will grow by a mere 0.4 per cent in 2010. 

Unemployment will grow by 25 per cent to more than 2.2 million next year. Meanwhile, incomes will stagnate and house prices continue to tumble.



Only Estonia and Latvia are expected to suffer more profound recessions in 2009.

Earlier this year Chancellor Alistair Darling had predicted the UK will grow by as much as 2.75 per cent in 2009 and three per cent in the following year. But he and Gordon Brown last month admitted the picture had changed due to the bank failures.

With the credit crunch hitting tax revenues, forcing the Government to increase public borrowing, the EU forecasts suggest that the deficit could hit £80 billion next year and £94 billion in 2010 - more than double the Treasury forecasts given in March.

The Commission is, however forecasting a gradual recovery in the Eurozone in the second half of next year - but admits that this is unlikely in Britain until 2010.

It said: 'The central outlook envisages a marked fall in private consumption in 2009 and 2010, driven by more restrictive borrowing conditions and lower household wealth.' continues here

Britain IS in recession and 500,000 will lose their job by the end of the year, CBI warns

The economy is in a recession and will not recover for at least a year, the Confederation of British Industry will warn today. 

The business lobby group will also claim an extra 500,000 workers could lose their jobs by the end of next year. 

The grim forecast is the first warning from an authoritative UK source that the world’s fifth-largest economy has plunged into negative territory. 

Last week, the European Union and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development gave similar warnings. 

Richard Lambert, director general of the CBI, said both businesses and consumers are suffering a ‘very uncomfortable time’. 

Although official figures do not confirm the county is in a recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth - Government statistics often lag behind the true state of the economy. 

The latest figures, for April to June, show GDP growth was 0 per cent. 

The CBI will also say it expects the recession to trigger a sharp rise in the number of unemployed, raising the total to around 2.1million.

About 7 per cent of economically active workers will be unemployed, it will claim - the highest rate for more than a decade and larger than June’s forecast of 1.83million by the end of 2009. 

The biggest casualties will be those who work in banking, housing and retail - sectors the CBI predicts will become the ‘epicentre’ of the unemployment storm. 

To make matters worse, it also expects inflation, currently 4.4 per cent, to keep on rising for the next few months. 

And the CBI will warn the trend of average pay rises for both public and private sector workers will continue to be lower than inflation. 

Mr Lambert said: ‘The “R" word is obviously a big deal for politicians. 

‘In the real world, if you talk to businesses people or households about a plus or a minus in the GDP figures, it does not make any difference at all. It is a very uncomfortable time.’ continues here

If they cared about us, if they really did, they’d stop immigration, we simply cannot afford more people, more strain upon our fragile economy but you know they don’t care, we are nothing, merely drones to pay taxes, whilst they swoosh by in their high powered cars. They can barely hear us in their ivory towers, barely discern our distress, we are so far below them, that they can hardly see us, let alone relate, oh it’ll be you not them, that loses your job, you not them, that will lose your home, your children, not theirs that goes without. The fat cats will remain fat cats whilst we, right down there at the bottom of the tower, remain inconsequential, yes they’ll come to you again, when they need your vote, to prop up the lie of democracy, they’ll come to you with higher bills and demands for payment.

What they will never do is help us, what they will never do is face the truth, finance must never rule a nation as now it is permitted to do, the power of the moneyed elite is the root course of societal problems, break the power of the banks and you’ve broken the back of the problem. Finance should be subservient to the people, it should represent the nations labour, now however, speculation, that is to say, non-worked for profit, is the order of the day, the more you have the more you earn, whilst the masses struggle to live.

Some say it will fall apart, that this is the beginning of profound change, I believe I shall hedge my bets, for centuries now we have been held in moneys grip, to believe that such a hold can be relinquished is but a pipe-dream. No-where, no-where upon the planet, do people govern their own affairs, no-where upon this planet does true freedom prevail, so it doesn’t matter, any hardship to come, it is what we have always faced, the rise and fall of false economics.

We are pawns in a great game, worthless, usable, destined for extinction, amalgamation into a new brown drone class, which to will serve finance, serve the greedy and struggle to live, the ebb and tide of finance again unhindered. It is a game to them you see, the champagne class, the reprehensible leftists and the unhinged multiculturalists and we mere sport. 14